President and the ruling party

In June 2010, the third year of the Lee Myung-bak administration in office, then Rep. Park Geun-hye appeared in the opposition debate when the revised Sejong City plan to designate a special administrative district was submitted to the National Assembly. Despite dissuasion of ruling party members, Park took a firm stance and said, “In order for Korean politics to move forward to the future, the public needs to have trust that the government’s promise is kept without exception.” The revision was rejected by 164 votes to 105. It was the moment that sparked a lame duck of the former president. At that time, Park was an uncrowned heavyweight who exerted stronger influence than the ruling party leadership and was a strong opposition inside the ruling party.

On Tuesday last week when controversy over the year-end tax settlement scheme flared up, Rep. Joo Ho-yeong, the chairman of the Saenuri Party’s Policy Committee, reportedly called then-floor leader Lee Wan-koo and asked if (Lee) was willing to stand in opposition to the government. To appease the salaried workers who were angered by reduced amount of tax refund, it was necessary to reverse the administration’s decision. Since it looks like the ruling party is in confrontation with the president in the third year of her term in office, the committee chairman asked if the floor leader intended to. On the next day, Joo, Lee and Saenuri Party Chairman Kim Moo-sung joined forces together and pushed ahead for "retrospective tax refund." However, nobody mentioned President Park along the way. In comparison to then Rep. Park during the former administration, the current ruling party leadership is quite "considerate."

It is a warning signal that the president’s approval rating dropped to 30 percent. It is serious since the president’s approval rating shows a bigger gap with the support ratings (41 percent) of the ruling Saenuri Party. If such a situation keeps going on, the ruling party would feel burdened for having the president on its side, rather than benefiting from the president. The ruling party would naturally attempt to have distance from the president and the ruling-government relations would go sour. As discontent of the ruling party grows further, ruling party members would defect from the party. This has happened repeatedly in the past administrations. During the President Roh Moo-hyun administration, ruling party members broke "the party of the president" and created a new party. It was similar reasons behind why the former Grand National Party changed its name to the Saenuri Party.

President Park Geun-hye has maintained good relations with the ruling party until now. The pro-Park faction serves as a pillar to support her. However, if situation gets worse, President Park can follow the suit of the past administrations at any time. She may have hurriedly named the ruling party floor leader as Prime Minister nominee to avoid such state. But more fundamental solution would be that the president changes herself and restores the past approval rating. The ruling party cannot remain a spectator in this situation.