Exodus From North May Become Reality

There are continuous warnings about North Korea that there will be a majority of defectors who are suffering more and more as international sanctions are getting intense.

The International Crisis Group (ICG) reported “a crisis of North Korean refugees,” warning, “There is a great possibility that the crisis of nuclear weapons would lead to the crisis of humanitarianism.” ICG suggested neighboring countries including China should have preparations to protect defectors.

The report said, “The situation in North Korea is worsening because of the North Korea`s growing isolation, flood damage and reduction of international assistance. The crisis such as the worst famine in 1990s in which it is estimated two million people died could happen again.”

Peter M. Beck, ICG’s Northeast Asia Project Director, argued, “It is North Korea that has the primary responsibility of this crisis. However, since it is hard to expect anything from the North Korean government, surrounding countries should play critical roles. In particular, expecting the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, China should perform international duties such as prohibition of deporting defectors and protection of asylum seekers.”

The Los Angeles Times also reported quoting excerpts from experts of international organizations to protect human rights that North Korea’s nuclear test will incite an exodus of North Koreans.

The figures from World Food Program (WFP) reminded of the fact that North Korea has been limiting people’s food rations for several months now and that South Korea cut 500,000 tons of food assistance after North Korea’s missile test in July.

Experts forecast that there might be a major departure from North Korea next January and February when the river Aprok is frozen, since starvation becomes much more severe due to this summer’s huge flood which produced 50,000 dead and 1500,000 victims.

However, there are some other opinions about North Korea’s food condition.

The USA Today reported on October 23 that despite of international sanctions, North Korea will be able to survive at least this winter because of their reserved assistant supplies and partially growing economy.

Kenneth Quinones, a former North Korea specialist at the State Department, says, “It seems that North Korea has 500,000 to 600,000 tons of food assistance from South Korea and China in 2005 reserved as surplus in storage.”

Marcus Noland, a senior researcher of the Institute for International Economics, indicated that there is some money left, saying, “Tens of millions of dollars China invested in North Korea for the first half of the year is beyond North Korea’s capacity to absorb.”

klimt@donga.com