It is Premature to Trust Pyongyang Move

As the deadline passed for Pyongyang to meet its part of the agreement under the February 13 denuclearization deal, the U.S. is keeping its eyes and ears alert on activities taking place in Yongbyon by using all means possible, including satellites. This has led the U.S. to find out activities that are believed to be related to preparatory work for shutting down its nuclear facilities.

The U.S., which has been monitoring Yongbyon, also known as “the main battle field of Pyongyang’s game,” and the North, which has been trying to break through the U.S.’s surveillance, have been waging a fierce intelligence war over the past 21 years. However, the rules of the hide-and-seek that they have been playing since the North reactivated the Yongbyon reactor in January 1986 have gradually changed over the two decades because the North has frequently attempted to counterplot the U.S.’s surveillance.

While North Korea earnestly prepared to launch the long-range Taepodong-2 last July, the U.S. observed the movements of tarp-covered transport trailers carrying the missiles from a munitions plant in Jamjin to Musudan-ri by using the CIA’s KH-12 reconnaissance satellite.

Although the KH-12 usually remains at an altitude of 600 kilometers, it can fly as low an altitude as 150 kilometers to produce images at a resolution of 15 centimeters per pixel. At this resolution, people can even distinguish the identity of a walking person.

“The U.S. is closely monitoring North Korea with two satellites; the KH 11 and KH 12. Although they generally take pictures five to six times a day, they carry out surveillance 24 hours a day when an unusual movement is detected,” an official of an intelligence agency said.

So when steam is continuously emitted from the cooling tower of the reactor, it can be grounds to assume that the reactor is operating. And vehicles and the movement of people around nuclear facilities are used as clues in analyzing Pyongyang’s intention.

However, North Korea began to counterplot the surveillance of the U.S. in late 1990s. For instance, the North leaked false signs of restarting the Yongbyon nuclear facilities in response to the “ignorance strategy” of the George W. Bush administration in late 2002.

Plutonium can be extracted from the Yongbyon facilities only when the operation of the reactor is stopped. However, the North was able to stealthily extract plutonium by producing steam with heating systems, sources said.

“It is difficult to accurately identify whether the reactor is operating or heating systems are in use just based on the emission of steam,” sources said.

Therefore, the intelligence agencies believe the interpretation of data is more important in drawing a correct conclusion. They say that the integration of high resolution pictures, rich background knowledge, telecommunication intelligence, circumstantial information, and human intelligence is a must.

This illustrates how difficult it is to reach a conclusion solely based on the images of extraordinary activities. The National Intelligence Agency said, “They might be doing cleaning as guests are expected to arrive.” In short, the North is preparing for the invitation of the inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, according to the NIA’s analysis.

However, some experts say that it is too early to conclude that the North is actually preparing to close its nuclear facilities since it can be just a show set up to shun criticism on its breaching the February 13 agreement.

taewon_ha@donga.com