North Heading for Clash: China Expert

“If North Korea doesn’t renounce its nuclear programs, the U.S. is likely to use its last resort, a military operation, to remove the North’s nuclear program. There is no sign that the North Korean nuclear issue is being resolved at the moment,” said Zhang Liangui, a professor of China’s Central Party School and the best Chinese expert on the Korean Peninsula, on January 2.

The professor added, “North Korea developed nuclear weapons to counter threats from the U.S. and take controls in inter-Korea relations. Bilateral talks, let alone the six-party talks, can’t persuade the North to abandon its nuclear program.”

-On what grounds do you think North Korea will not give up its nuclear program?

“First of all, North Korea demands so much that countries involved in the six-party talks including the U.S. can’t accept all the demands. The North is demanding economic rewards and a guarantee of the current regime’s political and military security. Furthermore, incentives the U.S. is offering can’t satisfy the communist country. Especially, if North Korea doesn’t possess nuclear weapons, it can’t counter the U.S. Therefore, the North would be unwilling to give up its nuclear program even if the other six-party participants yield more.

-The international community’s pressure on the North will increase if the regime remains intransigent…

“Washington will directly press Pyongyang on the issue if the regime insists on possessing nuclear weapons. As a result, Beijing would have to stop providing Pyongyang with food and oil. Nevertheless, the North will not abandon its nuclear program.

-Some argue that cessation of food and energy assistance provided by China to North Korea would result in the collapse of the North’s economy and eventually of the regime.

“Even if Beijing stops supplying Pyongyang with food and oil, the Kim Jong Il regime would not easily collapse. Unlike other countries, the regime isn’t likely to fall even in the face of mass starvation. There is no opposition force in place in the North to destroy the current regime.

-What action the U.S. would take if North Korea continues refusing to renounce its nuclear program?

“Washington will take its last resort, a military action. It would be difficult for South Korea and China to object to the military action when it is confirmed that the North will not abandon its nuclear program despite stronger sanctions against it because ensuring a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula is the most important thing for Seoul and Beijing.

-When do you think the U.S. will take a military action?

“Negotiations are likely to continue throughout this year or until next year. But the U.S. wouldn’t want negotiations to continue even after next year.

after that, if there is no progress on the issue, there is likely a military action.”

-Some say it is possible that Washington and Beijing make a secret deal to establish a nuclear-free and pro-Chinese regime in Pyongyang that would replace the Kim Jong Il regime.

“That’s not the Chinese way in dealing with an issue like the North Korean nuclear program. It’s not desirable and not likely.”

orionha@donga.com