No Effects from Sanctions on North Korea’s Nuclear Program

A prominent American expert on nuclear weapons analyzed that North Korea’s program on miniaturization and sophistication of nuclear weapons would not be affected by international sanctions and an isolation policy.

Siegfried S. Hecker (picture), who is acknowledged as the top nuclear expert in the U.S. and an emeritus director of Los Alamos National Laboratory, said the aforementioned in an interview with Dong-A Ilbo at Stanford University near San Francisco on October 10. The host was Shin Ki-wook, the director of the Asia Pacific region at Stanford University, on behalf of Dong-A.

Dr. Hecker said, “It is estimated that the yield of the bomb which was dropped in North Korea’s nuclear test is about one kiloton. It is a comparatively small explosion. However, this nuclear bomb with its small power can kill thousands of people instantly and kill more people with its aftereffects when it is dropped in a metropolis.”

He added, “It cannot be said that North Korea’s nuclear test failed because of its low yield. There is a possibility that North Korea originally planned to have a comparatively small nuclear bomb with huge destructive power in the test, but it did not go right. Another assumption is that it planned to conduct the nuclear test with a small but sophisticated nuclear bomb.”

“This test would be an essential step if it has intention to make a small-sized nuclear warhead to arm a missile,” said Dr. Hecker.

Dr. Hecker visited Yongbyon to assess North Korea’s nuclear facilities in January 2004. He said, “I think North Korea possesses enough plutonium to make six to eight nuclear weapons and can abstract additional plutonium for one nuclear bomb every year. And it might have enough amount of enriched uranium already aside from plutonium bombs.”

In addition, he foresaw, “If North Korea is satisfied with the results from this nuclear test and is ready, then the second test could be conducted in a few days. However, if the results were beyond its expectations, it would take several weeks to several months to make the equipment all over again.”

“North Korea’s nuclear program does not depend on external help or supply at present. International sanctions and isolation policy would not prevent its nuclear program,” analyzes Dr. Hecker.

sechepa@donga.com