Will the Six-Party Talks Resume This Week?

Attention is being focused on whether the fourth round of six-party talks for the peaceful resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue will be resumed “sometime during the week of August 29” as was agreed upon before.

It is physically impossible to resume the talks earlier this week because the date for the resumption of talks has not been set as of August 28.

Bringing much attention with regard to this issue is Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Wu Dawei’s visit to Pyongyang for four days from August 27-30. Wu is the chair of the six-party talks and China’s chief representative at the talks. He is said to be discussing the date for the resumption of talks with North Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan, North Korea’s chief representative at the talks.

Some analysts view that China is moving with it in mind that if the six-party talks are concluded during Chinese President Hu Jintao’s visit to the U.S., scheduled to start September 5, China would be able to enhance its diplomatic standing to its highest level.

The Sankei Shimbun, a Japanese newspaper, reported on Aug 28 that it is highly likely that two leading U.S. senators will visit North Korea next week and convey a message from U.S. President George W. Bush.

The senators who will visit North Korea are Jim Leach (Republican, Committee on International Relations, chairman of Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs) and Tom Lantos (Democrat). They will meet Deputy Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan and discuss the resumption of the six-party talks.

However, North Korea’s recent attitude seems to augur ill for a successful conclusion of the six-party talks. Rodong Sinmun, a North Korean newspaper, criticized the appointment of the U.S. Special Envoy on Human Rights in North Korea and the Ulji-Focus Lense (South Korea’s military drill) calling them “ominous activities that could blow a whirlwind which could obstruct the way to a successful conclusion of the six-party talks.” It added, “If the U.S. keeps acting like this, we would be left with no other option than to change our minds.”

If North Korea is truly pessimistic about the resumption of the six-party talks, the true reason seems to lie in the fact that the behind-the-scenes negotiations between North Korea and the U.S. have borne no results. After the six-party talks were suspended on August 7, the two countries have been engaged in behind-the-scenes negotiations to discuss the most controversial issue of the talks, North Korea’s right to peaceful nuclear use. Despite several meetings in New York between North Korean and U.S. officials, and a visit to the U.S. by South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon, not only North Korea and the U.S., but also South Korea and the U.S. have failed to iron out their differences on this issue.

Therefore, North Korea might have reached the conclusion that even if they return to the negotiating table, they might not be guaranteed the right to the peaceful use of nuclear weapons and that they might be driven into a corner if the six nations are divided into five and one.

Remarks made by the Japanese foreign minister back this analysis. Japanese Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura said, “It seems that we haven`t had a breakthrough yet on this difficult issue. Unless we have some idea of that, it appears that it will be difficult to have any prospects for a date for the resumption of talks."

Government officials who had been confident about the resumption of the six-party talks this week seem to have shifted to cautiousness.

Whether the six-party talks will be resumed the later part of this week all seems to depend on the results of the visit to North Korea by Wu Dawei.

A government official said, “As of now, not only can we not know for sure when the talks will resume, but we also can’t bet that the talks will be resumed within this week.” He added, “Only after Deputy Foreign Minister Wu returns from North Korea will we get some hint on this.”

Jong-Koo Yang jkmas@donga.com