Moviegoers Wonder: Will Japan Sink?

“Is Japan really going to sink?”

Japanese people are increasingly asking this question out of fear, after a blockbuster disaster movie “Sinking of Japan” was released last month nationwide.

“Sinking of Japan” is a remake of a film by the same title which was released in December 1973 drawing 6.5 million viewers. The original novel hit the store before the movie and has sold 4.0 million copies so far.

Although the remake movie, which changed the time setting to present and used a number of special effects, was not as popular as the original, it is said to be a moderate success earning 900 million yen in the first week of release.

Many Japanese people are feeling nervous about the possibility of Japan’s sinking, because the Japanese islands are located unstably at the end of the Eurasian plate, which meets with the Pacific plate and the Philippines plate.

The Earthquake Research Institute of University of Tokyo, which provided scientific advice to this movie, had to make a separate Q&A board on its website to answer the overflowing questions from concerned people.

In the movie, the edge of the Pacific plate begins to sink, pulling down the edge of the Eurasian plate. Consequently, the entire islands of Japan are doomed to sink within a year, and simultaneous earthquakes, volcano eruptions and tsunamis shatter the nation.

However, the research institute emphasized that Japan will never sink as long as the status quo is maintained. In fact, according to the institute, the Japanese islands are rising slightly pushed up by the Pacific plate in the east and the Philippines plate in the south.

It added that even if Japan does sink, it will take as much as one million years.

Still, if the movie becomes a reality, how long will it take for 120 million Japanese people to escape the islands? By simple calculation, it is going to take 400 days, but if we take blocked roads and closed airports into consideration, it will take much more time, according to the research institute.

The institute added that the scenario of having multiple earthquakes like in the movie was very unlikely. There has been no report of simultaneous earthquakes in far away regions like Hokkaido and Kyushu.

Nevertheless, it was certain that the Mt. Fuji will erupt in the future for sure.

Will a massive earthquake in Japan affect its neighbor Korea? “There is little chance of an earthquake in Japan affecting neighboring countries, but in 1983, the earthquakes in Akita and Aomori caused a tsunami that killed some in Korea,” answered the research institute.

iam@donga.com