North’s Pre-Test Feelers Questioned

Various analyses have emerged over reasons behind North Korea’s proposal to hold liaison-level contacts for general-level military talks between the two Koreas just two days before its largest scale ever missile barrage.

Defense Minister Yoon Kwang-ung in a press conference on July 7 said, “We did not relate Pyongyang’s proposal with the missile test-fire.” His comment means that they considered the offer as a follow-up procedure regarding the breakdown of fourth round military talks held in May due to differences of opinions between the two parties.

Many experts, however, think the offer was possibly part of Pyongyang’s scenario of setting a date for launching missiles and causing confusion with Seoul while taking subsequent reactions after test-firing into account. We need to pay attention to the fact that the North offered liaison officer contact exactly when the South detected signs of missile launches by the North.

The offer perhaps can be explained by the notions that the North wanted to confuse the South to misjudge by surprising the South with the unexpected suggestion when the South was suspecting North Korea’s possible missile launches. It might be a tactic to lead Seoul to misjudge that Pyongyang was hardly likely to launch a missile at a time when the government of the North suggested having military talks. Some analyzed that the North wanted to have an opportunity to explain to the South its intention two days after the missile launches. Others analyzed that the North would have argued that the missile launches were part of a routine military exercise if the military officials of the two Koreas had met on July 7.

A defense ministry official said, “The timing of North Korea’s proposal was inappropriate and regrettable.” Another possibility that cannot be excluded is that Pyongyang’s leadership kept the launching of missiles in secret to maximize the effect. If only Kim Jong Il and several other high-ranking officials knew about and ordered a sudden launching, it is possible that other military officials had no idea about it and proposed contact with the South according to their internal plan.

Sang-Ho Yun ysh1005@donga.com