ICBM Test Delay Keeps World Guessing

There are various analyses of why North Korea has not test-fired Taepodong missile 2 even after they refueled it.

Bad weather conditions-

Last week, the Korean, U.S. and Japanese governments expected the missile to be launched as early as June 18. However, as the missile wasn’t test-fired, some officials of the Korean government assume that bad weather conditions at the missile launch site such as cloud and rain played a role.

If the weather is not good, the radar that identifies whether the missile is put on a scheduled route and flying toward a target site cannot function properly due to the clouds.

A government official explained, “Even when the weather is not favorable, there is no problem with the missile launch. But concerns that the missile’s trajectory might not be able to be identified could lead to a delay in the missile launch.

Lack of technology-

Some are saying that the North is putting off test-firing of the missile as they lack confidence in sending it to the target site.

It is said that Pyongyang failed to test-fire the Taepodong 1 in August 1998. Pyongyang maintained that the then-launch was to put an artificial satellite on the earth’s orbit out of the atmosphere, but U.S. search results found no artificial satellite launched by the North on the earth’s orbit.

Therefore, the issue is whether the North can succeed in launching Taepodong 2, whose range is two times at minimum or ten times at maximum as long as that of Taepodong 1.

And other analyses say that Pyongyang is hesitating about launching because they fear that the missile might be intercepted by the U.S. or Japan.

Pyongyang is also afraid of giving the international community an impression that they have nuclear weapons but have no capacity to transport them. That means the North’s ruse to obtain as much as political and economical compensation from the international community through the six-party talks, using the nuclear possession as leverage, could be thwarted.

China exerts leverage-

President Bush called on Chinese President Hu Jintao on the phone early this month to exert leverage so that Pyongyang would stop its missile experiment. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also asked Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing for the same request on the phone.

Some experts on the North said that the North’s delay in test-firing the missile resulted from China’s influence. However, it is being said that the government concluded that China would not have made any comment on Pyongyang’s missile launch issue.

Bargaining card-

There are some views within the Korean and Japanese governments that Pyongyang is not postponing or calling off test-firing the missile, expecting Washington to give them a “carrot.”

A security official anticipated that it is likely for Pyongyang to try to make it seem real that they will eventually test-fire the missile in order to draw Washington to bilateral talks for issues such as financial sanctions discussion.

The Japanese Yomiuri Shimbun introduced an analysis made by some Japanese government officials that Pyongyang is trying to obtain a chance of direct negotiations with Washington to lift financial sanctions.

In fact, Pyongyang launched Taepodong 1 in 1998 and used the launch of Taepodong 2 in 1999 as a bargaining card to ease U.S. economic sanctions against Pyongyang.

Ko Yu-hwan, North Koreanology Professor of Dongguk University forecast that the missile launch will lead to a U.S. pressure on Pyongyang as the Bush administration is different from the democratic government in 1999.

Myoung-Gun Lee Kwang-Am Cheon gun43@donga.com iam@donga.com