[Opinion] Jinmen Island and the Taiwan Strait

For two long hours on August 23, 1958, some 30,000 shells rained down on Jinmen Dao, an island located 10km off the coast of Xiamen in China’s Fujian Province. The bombardment resulted in the deaths of 600 soldiers, including three Taiwanese lieutenant generals (equivalent to a Korean major general). The assault lasted for two months, into late October, and would come to be known as the famous “bombardment of Jinmen Island.” At the time, Jiang Jie-shi’s army was engaged in non-conventional military activities, including the distribution of leaflets, in order to recover the mainland, with 100,000 troops stationed on the isles of Jinmen and Mazhu, and special operation units posted in Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan.

In September of that year, Mao Tse-dung proclaimed an “Address to Our Fellow Countrymen in Taiwan” under the name of then Minister of National Defense Peng De-huai. The address explained that China desired a peaceful reunification with Taiwan, but made it clear that any “scheming” for a divided China or Taiwan’s independence on the strength of the U.S.’ support would not be tolerated. When the bombardment occurred, the Eisenhower administration immediately dispatched six aircraft carriers from the Pacific and the Mediterranean to the Taiwan Strait. Then Secretary of State John Dulles even advocated a nuclear assault on China.

This summer, the shadow of the Jinmen Island bombardment seems to be drawing once again over the Taiwan Strait. As a gesture of warning toward Chen Shui-bian, who is openly manifesting his drive for Taiwan’s independence, China is conducting intensive military drills on Dongshan Island, in Fujian Province. Taiwan, in turn, is conducting its annual Hankuang military exercise, with a scenario that includes not only a preemptive attack on China’s strategic facilities like the Sanxia Dam but also the president’s evacuation onto a U.S. military vessel. In late August, the U.S. will rally seven aircraft carriers in the largest surface mobilization exercise since the end of the Cold War, in an area of the western Pacific close to mainland China. It’s all too reminiscent of what took place 46 years ago.

In the early 1990s, former Defense Secretary Casper Weinberger of the Reagan administration published a book entitled “The Next War.” Among the scenarios included is a war between China and Taiwan: while the U.S. is mobilizing its troops to defend Taiwan, North Korea is likely to launch an invasion on the South. On the other hand, a war on the Korean Peninsula is likely to prompt China to a military absorption of Taiwan. In short, the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan Strait are key links in the chain. Numerous analyses warn against such worst-case scenarios, but the Taiwan Strait demands our constant attention nonetheless.

Beijing correspondent Hwang Yoo-sung yshwang@donga.com