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The transportation industry is busy preparing for a new wave made by Korea Train Express.

The industry is expecting the high speed rail will change not only how to travel but also lifestyles and demographics.

According to the Korean High Speed Rail Construction Authority, when the rail is opened partially (the first phase opening), around 140,000 people will use the high speed rail service. Korea Train Express will run 46 times a day in the first phase opening.

58 percent of domestic air travelers are expected to switch to the high speed rail while 16.1 percent of railroad passengers, 6.2 percent of bus passengers, and 4 percent of automobile drivers are likely to change their transportation means. Ticket price will be about 130 percent of Saemaul ticket price, or 70 percent of domestic airline fare.

Carriers falling into dilemma: Cho Kyu-yuong of Asiana Airlines said, “The rail will exacerbate deficits in domestic lines.” Cho added, “Although we have to cut flights between Seoul and Busan, Daegu, Gwangju, and Mokpo, it is not easy to cut staff.”

Asiana Airlines is planning to reduce flights between Seoul and Daegu and Busan by 80 percent and other indirectly affected lines by 20 percent. The company is going to return four out of a total of 22 airplanes to the lease company. It is also considering increasing ticket prices that are below cost.

Another airline carrier Korean Air is planning to cut domestic flights by more than 25 percent. Instead, the company will increase international flights departing from Jeju, Busan, and Daegu International Airports to minimize job cuts.

Express bus at a crossroads: Min Byung-chan of Express Bus Union said, “The high speed rail will steal 12 percent of bus passengers, which is double the government estimation. Express bus companies will be forced to go bankrupt.”

10 express bus companies are busy coming up with countermeasures such as changing schedules. To win the battle, the bus industry is going create a niche market and improve services. Mun Jin-sik of Kumho Express said, “We are considering adopting first class express bus with satellite TV and Internet access and other new bus systems such as female-only bus running at night for women or military bus for those who leave home to join the army.”

Bus companies are also considering equipping GPS to all buses to be more properly and quickly informed about traffic.

Mixed responses from the freight industry: The freight industry is showing mixed responses about the rail. It is bad news for the industry that the Korean National Railroad is going to increase its freight capacity. Trucks now have a strong competitor.

Kim Se-jong of Korea Express said, “The rail may improve efficiency in cargo transportation. But at the same time, the better traffic may encourage people to drive more. This is why we are not rushing to come up with countermeasures.”

eye@donga.com