Global Economy To Be Led by India and China In Next 15 Years

“The world’s economic development will be led by Asian countries like India and China up to 2020,” Germany’s biggest bank, Deutsche Bank, predicted, adding on April 13, “As Asian countries rapidly grow for 15 years from 2006 to 2020, their growth rate will be considerably higher than that of other regions.”

In a report on 32 major countries, Deutsche Bank chose India as the most likely candidate with the highest yearly growth rate for the next 15 years of 5.5 percent.” Following India were Malaysia (5.4 percent), China (5.2 percent), Thailand (4.5 percent), and Turkey (4.1 percent). Korea ranked eighth with a possible average annual rate of 3.3 percent out of 32 countries, and Japan ranked 31st with 1.3 percent. Including Indonesia, which ranked seventh with 3.5 percent, six Asian countries belonged to the top 10.

In particular, Deutsche Bank predicted, “India, Malaysia, and China are likely to achieve average yearly economic growth of more than five percent by trade expansion with the outside world and consistent increases in population.“ The United States ranked first in terms of projected per-capita income in 2020, and Korea ranked 21st with $23,000.

China and India, the world’s most populous countries, ranked 29th and 31st with $9,000 and $5,000, respectively. Deutsche Bank explained that for its research, it used the Formel-G Foresight Model, which involves the population growth rate, investment rate, human capital, trade openness and other factors.

Sang-Soo Kim ssoo@donga.com