Korea’s Winning Probability is Rising Perpendicularly.

‘From 150 to 1 to 14 to 1’

The winning probability of the Korean team’s wining the World Cup predicted by the soccer gamblers is rising perpendicularly. The world’s renowned betting company, Red Brox in England changed the dividend rate for Korea’s winning the Cup to 14 to 1 after the Korean team reached the quarterfinal. It means that if you bet 10,000 won on Korea’s winning the Cup, you will win 140,000 won if Korea actually wins the Cup. If one team’s probability of winning is higher, the dividend rate is lower because more people will likely bet on that team and vice versa.

The dividend rate for Korea’s winning the Cup set by ‘Red Brox’ was 150 to 1 until the opening of the World Cup. However, it changed to 68 to 1 after Korea defeated Poland, and it changed again to 14 to 1 after Korea reached the quarterfinal with a dramatic win over Italy. ‘Red Brox’ is predicting that Korea’s winning probability is higher than other quarterfinalists such as Senegal, Turkey, and the US. The other betting company, William Hill, set the dividend rate for Korea’s winning the Cup as 126 to 1 before the opening of the World Cup, but changed to 81 to 1 after the match against Poland and changed again to 17 to 1 after Italian game. Especially, William hill set the dividend rate for Korea’s winning the Cup to 66 to 1 after Korea’s reaching the round of sixteen, which reflects the lower winning probability than Japan’s 22 to 1 dividend rate and Turkey’s 50 to 1; however, it changed the dividend rate for Korea’s winning the Cup to 17 to 1 compare to Turkey’s 19 to 1.

In the meantime, France was the favorite team by both companies with 3 to 1 dividend rate. France kept 5 to 1 rate after her loss to Senegal in the opening game until the end of the first round, but they were dropped out of the competition. Senegal had 150 to 1 dividend rate before the opening but it changed recently to 16 to 1 and 17 to 1 by both companies. After the exclusion of the French team, Brazil became the most favorite team. The dividend rate, which was 11 to 4 and 4.5 to 1 in the beginning of the competition, has changed to 2 to 1 by Red Brox and 3.4 to 1 by William Hill recently. England, Spain, and Germany are following Brazil.

Italian team was the favorite team after France’s losing the opening game with the 4.5 to 1 rate by William Hill; however, it changed to 9 to 2 right before the Korean match because they were not impressive in the first round.

Won-Hong Lee bluesky@donga.com