Korean peninsula in wake of Bush`s inauguration

Two months have elapsed since U.S. President George W. Bush took office. During that time, what changes have been brought to the relations between South and North Korea, the South and the United States, and the North and the U.S.? The following is an analysis in this regard.

North Korea:

It seems that North Korea has faced most serious difficulties. The Bush administration, which voiced deep skepticism about the North Korean leader during the recent summit with President Kim Dae-Jung in Washington, is poised to make an overall review of the North Korean policies that had been pursued by the previous Bill Clinton administration. Influenced by the Bush administration`s policy of reciprocity in dealing with Pyongyang, the Seoul government will be obliged to take the U.S. hardline stance into account. After perceiving the hardline U.S. policy against the North, Pyongyang has launched a recalcitrant anti-U.S. offensive. Although Pyongyang`s harsh attacks on Washington may have motivated it to pressure the U.S. to abide by the mutual agreements, the North could revert to old-fashioned brinkmanship tactics if its misgivings are little addressed.

South Korea:

Seoul has both merits and demerits. An advantage to the South is that President Kim had an opportunity to find out problems with its conventional North Korean policies during his recent summit with President Bush and his talks with other U.S. leaders. However, in the future, the Seoul government will have to be concerned over Washington`s position in formulating and implementing its inter-Korean policy measures. At the same time, the Kim government needs to pay more heed to the voices of conservatives at home. In fact, the government is setting the tone and pace of its rapprochement policy with Pyongyang in the wake of the Kim-Bush summit. With the North`s unilateral postponement of the fifth inter-Korean ministerial talks, their mutual relations have hit a snag.

The United States:

The Bush administration has suffered more disadvantages rather than advantages. It was revealed that President Bush held a summit with his Korean counterpart without established policies on the North Korean regime. In the aftermath of the Kim-Bush talks, the mass media in the U.S., including The New York Time and The Washington Post, carried commentaries critical of Bush`s frivolous attitude during his talks with the Korean president and thus closed the doors for dialogue with the North. From the position of the hawkish faction of the Republican Party, Bush`s hardline stance could serve as a restraint on Seoul`s unilateral rapprochement moves toward the North. Nonetheless, it is safe to say that the Bush administration failed to give certainty and confidence to both South and North Korea during President Kim`s U.S. visit, as the U.S. foreign and security policy makers displayed confusion and friction over the North Korean question.

Ha Tae-Won scooop@donga.com