[Column] How to account for changes in North Korean leader?

With the dawning of the Lunar New Year on Jan. 24, the year of dragon will finish and the year of the snake will begin. At this moment, the phrase that comes to mind is "the dragon's head and the snake's tail" (symbolizing a bright beginning and a dull end).

In relation to the state of inter-Korean relations, last year marked the year of the dragon's head as a South-North Korean summit was held for the first time since the national division 55 years ago. However, incidents such as the postponed implementation of the mutually agreed programs without due clarification raised concern that the dragon's head would become a snake's tail (the inter-Korean programs would end in anticlimax).

This particular development is a cause for concern. Among the incidents was the cancellation of a visit to Seoul scheduled for last December by Kim Yong-Nam, chairman of the North Korean Supreme People's Assembly, to prepare for North Korean Defense Commission Chairman Kim Jong-Il's reciprocal visit to Seoul; Pyongyang's denunciation of the U.S. military presence in Korea, which the South and North Korean leaders reached an understanding on during the mid-June inter-Korean summit; North Korean officials' open criticism of the Seoul government for its failure to make good on its promise at an international conference to provide further economic aid; and above all, hints at that the incoming administration of president-elect George W. Bush will take a hard-line stance on North Korea.

However, with the ongoing visit to China by North Korean leader Kim and prospects that Kim will make an earlier-than-expected visit to Seoul in March, the Korean government has come out with a revised view of prospects for inter-Korean relations. In particular, upon learning that the Pyongyang leadership underlined a "new thinking" in its quest for reform and openness in a joint editorial produced by the North Korean media, the South began to harbor fresh expectations of success in promoting peace on the Korean peninsula, with the North Korean leader's planned Seoul visit serving as the momentum.

What is moving Kim Jong-Il in this direction? First of all, it is assumed that only an ardent desire to model changes in North Korea after Chinese-style reforms and thus assure the ongoing survival of North Korea could motivate a self-imposed pragmatist like Kim to change his policy course. When Kim visited China last year. Chinese authorities must have persuaded him that rapprochement with Seoul would be greatly beneficial to the North. The Chinese leaders may be thinking that if its encouragement helps bring about positive change in inter-Korean relations, the Beijing government will find it easier to take joint steps with Russia and North Korea to cope with the potential changes in the U.S. if the Bush administration pushes ahead with its National Missile Defense (NMD) program.

In addition, it is to be noted that the emergence of the hard-line Bush administration may have prompted Pyongyang to adopt a new line of thinking and make plans for an early visit to Seoul. To recall, there were two conflicting schools of thought on what would be Washington's best course in terms of dealing with the former Soviet Union.

The first was known as the Raga school, which existed at a time when the U. S. did not recognize the Soviet Union's legitimacy as a nation and refused to set up a consulate-general in the country. Instead, it established a consulate-general in Raga, the capital city of Latvia, and studied the Soviets' internal and external affairs from that vantage point. The chief of the consulate-general was Dr. George Kennan, who later served as ambassador to the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. At that time, Kennan branded the Soviet leaders as insincere and insisted on the adoption of a containment policy against the "Evil Empire." Later, his thoughts were captured in the renowned Mr. X's Foreign Affairs Treatise of 1947.

The second was the Yalta School. The Yalta Conference in February 1945, which involved the leaders of the U.S., Britain and the Soviet Union, envisioned U.S.-Soviet cooperation as the framework for a new global order after World War II. The Yalta school thus advocated mutual cooperation but not containment of the USSR. Nowadays, when the Cold-War era has receded, scholars are of the view that the Riga school induced the Soviet Union's collapse and the end of the Cold War.

From this standpoint, there is no denying that the outgoing Clinton administration contributed to positive changes in North Korea and the improved development of inter-Korean relations. But it is considered that the launching of the hard line Bush administration will accelerate the pace of change in North Korean. In view of the fact that George W. Bush is the son of former president George Bush, who induced the Soviet collapse by adopting the Riga School position, the North Korean leadership will have to reconsider existing realities. In this vein, it cannot be overlooked that Colin Powell, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and one of the key players in efforts to defeat Iraq's Saddam Hussein during the Gulf War, is set to become secretary of state, and that hawkish Donald Rumsfeld has been designated as defense minister.

There is a valuable lesson to be learned by examining the possibility of the North taking positive steps against the backdrop of existing international relations. Let's return to Kennan. He repeatedly stressed the primacy of America's democracy, the thinking being that if the U.S. were fully democratic, the Soviet Union would change. If we want the North to move in the direction that we envisage, we have to develop our democracy to a higher level. Casting off the shackles of oligarchy and plutocracy, we must espouse an ideal society in which the people enjoy equality and prosperity. On the other hand, it is a good idea for the South to help the North make changes for the better by joining hands with Pyongyang. By doing so, this year will not end in anticlimax and the symbolism of the dragon's head and snake's tail will become meaningless.

Kim Hak-Joon, Editorial adviser, the Dong-a Ilbo