Complete recovery of N. Korean economy seen as impossible

In its policy study report on prospects and policy tasks in 2001 aimed at eventual South-North unification, the Advisory Council on Democratic and Peaceful Unification predicted that it would be impossible for the North Korean economy to achieve a complete recovery next year.

The only hope for recovery, according to the report, is continuous support from the international community, expansion of South-North economic cooperation, and the easing of U.S. economic sanctions on the North.

On prospects for North Korea-U.S. relations following the inauguration of the new Republican administration in the U.S., the report anticipated that North Korea would actively respond to negotiations on pending issues with the United States. The report said Pyongyang would act in the interests of assuring the security of its system and continuing to acquire economic benefits.

In the event that the Bush administration takes a hard-line attitude on the nuclear and missile issues, however, North Korea may come out with tough countermeasures, including canceling its nuclear freeze, annulling the Geneva nuclear agreement and Berlin missile agreement, and threatening to launch long-range missiles, according to the report.

Judging that there will be no change in North Korea's basic line of pursuing federation-style unification through South-North joint projects and great racial unity, the report stressed that the government should squarely address the possibility of military provocation by North Korea and implement its policy to embrace North Korea based on national security.