Ministry forecasts Bush policies on Korea

The Foreign Affairs-Trade Ministry's official document regarding the assessment of the incoming George W. Bush administration's policy toward the Korean peninsula and the ministry's response has been acquired by the foreign affairs-national security team of this newspaper.

The ministry document, titled ¡°U.S. Foreign Policy Direction Following the Inauguration of the Bush Administration,¡± is attracting public attention, as it marks the first time for the Korean government to issue an official paper in this regard, just one month before the inauguration of the Bush administration.

According to the document, the ministry forecasts that Washington will promote its diplomatic policies toward Korea with emphasis on the maintenance of peace and stability on the peninsula, despite the advent of hard-line diplomatic and security team. As a basis of the forecast, the document pointed out that President-elect Bush has made clear several times during his campaign period that he would attach great importance to Seoul-Washington relations and implement the North Korean policy in consultations with the South Korean government.

Secretary of State-designate Colin Powell backed the Bush position, saying that he would promote foreign policy on the basis of cooperation with U.S. allies, the document noted.

The ministry paper predicted that the Bush administration's North Korean policy would be formulated and carried out in line with the following three principles: the strengthening of the South Korean-U.S. alliance, the recognition of the effectiveness of Seoul's policy for inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation, and the inducement of the North Korean regime into the international community.

The document also pointed out that the "Perry Report," President Bill Clinton administration's North Korean policy guideline, was formulated by reflecting the "Amitage Report," the Republican Party's policy frame toward the North.

Accordingly, the Bush administration will find it difficult to devise any alternative proposition for the Perry process and is expected to maintain the framework of the current engagement policy with Pyongyang through dialogue and restraint on the basis of the ongoing rapprochement process between the Clinton administration and the North Korean leadership, the ministry predicted.

From this light, the paper inferred, the incoming administration will promote a summit between the new U.S. president and President Kim Dae-Jung at an early date, as one of the foreign policy priorities. Through the summit talks, the two leaders will be formulating the joint basic policy line toward Pyongyang and building a bilateral cooperative system in relation with the North, as well as the discussions on the development in the inter-Korean relations and the settlement of peace on the peninsula, the document stated, adding that the nations will promote the talks between their foreign ministers and other ministerial-level talks before long.

In light of the fact that the Republican Party will control not only the presidency but also Congress, the paper asserted that the National Assembly needs to strengthen parliamentary diplomacy toward the United States in support of diplomatic efforts. To this end, the document recommends that the Assembly dispatch a lawmakers' delegation, consisting of the members of the Unification, Foreign Affairs-Trade Committee, to the U.S. Congress even before Bush's inauguration.

For the sound development of the Seoul-Washington relationship, understanding and support from the peoples of the two countries are necessary, and to this end, private exchanges should be invigorated through the opinion makers of the two nations, involving media outlets and academics.

Ha Tae-Won scooop@donga.com