JPMorgan advises investors to prepare for a closer race

Wall Street investors are being warned of a closer presidential race than some expect. Investment bank JPMorgan said investors should position for the possibility of U.S. President Donald Trump winning re-election as nationwide anti-racism protests might work against former Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden if they turn violent.

“Betting odds that earlier had Trump well behind challenger Joe Biden are now nearly even,” Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing strategist Marko Kolanovic of JPMorgan who said that, based on past research, there could be a shift of five to 10 points in polls from Democrats to Republicans if the perception of protests turns from peaceful to violent. This is because President Trump’s emphasis on “law and order” might win over centrist voters as well as conservative voters.

Asset management company Principal Global Investors also warned investors positioned for a Democrat win in the presidential election and Congressional elections. It said they might lose a significant amount of cash if it turns out to be another 2016 election.

Meanwhile, President Trump portrayed himself as “the defender of order” on the same day in Kenosha, Wisconsin where there have been protests over racial injustice and police brutality since unarmed Jacob Blake, a black man, was shot by a white police officer in front of his three sons.

“These are not acts of peaceful protest but, really, domestic terror,” said President Trump speaking to the press, adding that people should fight against radical ideologies such as the violence witnessed in Kenosha to stop political violence. He did not meet Blake’s family.


Jae-Dong Yu jarrett@donga.com