If that happens, the report forecasts that the military is highly likely to control the government and independent units, such as the escort command, and the security command and the operation command will attempt to take control of the government by joining forces or individually.
Yesterday, Dong-A Ilbo obtained a report titled North Koreas Crisis Management System and Our Countermeasures released by the information committee of the National Assembly. The report predicts that we cannot rule out an abrupt collapse of the Kim Jong Il regime. But, given the neighboring countries do not have firm grounds for intervention, the fall of North Korea will happen gradually. It was submitted to the committee on December 13 by three researchers of Peace Foundation, Cho Seong-ryeol, Kim Hak-rin and Kang dong-ho.
Kim Jong Il in Trouble in North Korean Emergency-
The report argues that a national crisis is likely to be caused when Kim Jong Il, the chief of the Norths Workers Party, the government and the military, is in trouble.
If that happens, the report forecasts that the military is highly likely to control the government and independent units, such as the escort command, and the security command and the operation command, will attempt to take control of the government by joining forces or individually.
In particular, it also expects Oh Geuk Ryeol, the 75-year-old operational director of the Workers Party who is considered to be the most powerful among Kim Jong Ils cross associates, to act before others by utilizing his independent commanding authority and his elite unit equipped with advanced weapons.
The report says the first thing the North Korean military should do, after taking control, is to declare a national emergency in the name of the central military committee of the Workers Party, which is entitled to command and control all military power in the country according to Article 27 of the party rules. But the report also predicts that the national defense committee will be at the center of administration of power and that the new regime will maintain a group leader system temporarily.
Who Will Be the Acting Commander in Chief?-
According to the report, if the North engages in war with the outside world, the country is likely to shift an emergency control system with the commander in chief in its center, as it did during the Korean War.
Cho Myeong Rok, the 78-year-old director of the General Political Department of the Korean Peoples Army, is highly likely to be appointed as a commander in chief by hierarchy. But, considering age and health, Kim Yeong Chun, the 70-year-old Chief of the General Staff of the Army responsible for military operation of the one million-strong forces, is the shoo-in, according to the report.
Establishment of the Succession System-
It has been analyzed that the establishment of a succession system is more urgent for Kim Jong Il than the overcoming of the economic crisis through reform and market opening or the formation of diplomatic ties with the U.S., since Kim is well aware that an emergency in the absence of the succession system will lead to a civil war.
For this reason, it says, chances are that Pyongyang will formalize the succession system internally in the first half of 2007, when internal cohesion following its nuclear test and the supportive atmosphere for the third-time succession of military authority to protect the vested interest of the Military First politics still remain.
The report also connects the gradual stabilization of the succession system and the resolution of the Norths nuclear problem. It estimates that Kim will demand approval of the succession system and massive economic assistance in return for denouncement of nuclear weapons, and that the Pyongyang-Washington ties will be normalized if Washington accepts the demand.