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Chinese scholar’s ‘Theory of Preparation for the Disintegration of N. Korea’

Chinese scholar’s ‘Theory of Preparation for the Disintegration of N. Korea’

Posted September. 26, 2017 08:05,   

Updated September. 27, 2017 08:26


The “Theory of Preparation for the Disintegration of North Korea” suggested by Jia Qingguo, the dean of the School of International Studies at China’s Peking University, is growing in power in the academia. Professor Jia claimed that “China must cooperate with Korea and the United States. to prepare an emergency plan to deal with the crisis in the Korean Peninsula” in his recent contribution in “East Asia Forum” in Australia. He said that China must make a “contingency plan” on the assumption of a military collision between the United States and North Korea. It goes against the Chinese government’s official claim, which seeks for the solution for North Korea’s nuclear issues within the range of North Korea not being disintegrated.

As more scholars are agreeing to Jia’s claims one after another, controversies are growing in China. The Chinese government has criticized Jia’s claims just once through the scholars out of power, who worked at Ministry of Public Security, but has not officially reacted to it yet. The controversy over North Korea’s nuclear issues in China took place intensively around the time of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (Congress of the Party) five years ago. Back in February 2013 when North Korea conducted its 3rd nuclear China's Global Times, an influential tabloid, even wrote in a column that “China must give up protecting and defending North Korea unconditionally, as North Korea is against China’s benefits.”

Now is the time for China to change. North Korea was developing nuclear weapons at the time, but at this point, North Korea has finished developing not only nuclear weapons, but also intercontinental ballistic missiles. Neither South Korea, the United States, nor North Korea agrees to the claim of making North Korea give up on nuclear weapons through conversations. China must come out of the box of Cold War-like mindset and stop thinking the relationship between the United States and China as strategical conflict relations, leaving North Korea as a buffer zone. Chinese President Xi Jinping also criticized the North after its third nuclear test in February 2013, saying that no one can make a certain region or the whole world into an anarchy for his or her own selfish greed.

If China actively cooperates with the United Nations Security Council’s economic sanctions and if North Korea does not give up its nuclear weapons voluntarily, there lies a possibility for the use of physical clash of the U.S.’s military attacks. North Korea, which has nuclear in its hands, now refuses to give it up, publicly criticizing China’s demands for nuclear disarmament. South Korea can discuss about relocation of tactical nuclear weapons with the United States, a key ally of South Korea. Furthermore, Japan and Taiwan can arm themselves with nuclear weapons. North Korea armed with nuclear weapons is not a “strategical asset” anymore; instead, it has become a “strategical burden.” China is in a moment to choose between defending North Korea, which taunts the international society for putting effort to prevent the spreading of nuclear, or to build peaceful Northeast Asia with nuclear-free Korean Peninsula, by cooperating with South Korea and the United States. It is as clear as daylight which of these options will help China achieve “Chinese Dream.”